NIFTY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR WEEK 4

The markets moved up a whopping 3.8 % last week and overall just during the month of January Nifty has gained more than 9%. We had initially anticipated a move upto 4894 but a move so strong upto 5066 was frankly very unexpected. The target blended very quickly with all the incoming positive news and inflow of more than a Billion Dollars into the economy. The markets even disregarded the S&P Downgrade of France and the other nations.

                               The Golden Ratio of 61.8%

Retracement levels from high of 5400 to 4531 is shown in the above chart. 61.8% retracement comes in at 5067. The markets on Friday made a high of 5064.          

                                    Corrective or Impulsive wave ?

A typical wave 3 is a normal wave if it retraces upto 161.8 % levels of wave 1 which is 5020. The wave 4 retraces upto 23.6% and 38.2% of wave 3 so watch the markets very carefully at these levels and one shall know if we're headed back down or up. A close below 4827 shall confirm that this is rather a corrective wave and not an impulsive wave.
The  NIFTY volumes show that Fibo traders jumped into action at the levels and healthy shorts have been created with a SL of 5100  (7th December high of 5099 shall now act as a decent resistance for the bulls)

Note : The gaps that have been created and formed shall fill pretty quickly once the markets start reacting to the downfall.

Clearly the markets have been overbought for sometime now. Stochastic and RSI  both indicate levels of caution but MACD continues to remain in a bullish crossover.

Weekly charts suggest NIFTY now has support at 4827.
Monthly charts suggest that last months high of 5099 now acts as resistance. 

Intraday & Technicals - Sept 14th

We are now on CHAT 
For intraday calls and more trading opportunities add us on GTALK timesnifty@gmail.com



The markets today should wove downwards. The inflation reports come out today as the government decides on the rate hike policy tomorrow. The markets are volatile and VIX is at 32.75 and the all time high stands at 36. BankNifty (9339) continues to be weak but then again this may find strong support @ 8917 - long way :( 

SBIN has broken its Feb 2010 low of 1863 and now the next support comes in @1715 which is the Sept 2009 low 

Our projected High 1860 & Low 1764 - below that 1730

RIL - Stochastics and RSI show that the stock is losing steam quick and may take another beating today. CCI has now shown a sell signal for the stock.

SELL BELOW 805 for targets of 798, 791, 784 

Our projected High:817  & Low: 789

LT - The stock finds its next support @ 1609 - Definitely a sell for today AGAIN :)

Our projected High : 1653 & Low: 1604

Buy Nifty (Spot) above 4952 for targets of 4965 , 4985, 5003, 5020 SL - 4935

Sell Nifty (Spot) below  4935 for targets of 4919, 4902, 4884, 4867 SL 4952

Are You watching this ?

The Indian Stock Market Enterprise has been continuously trying to open the markets way ahead of its league only to watch it come down with in a matter a minutes back to levels where it actually belongs.

We did a research on our top 5 indicators which generally signal a trend change cautioning investors that what may look gloomy is actually intriguing.

We added some more simpler explanations for readers to understand exactly what these mean
The RSI is now at 63.35 where 30 is considered a buying level and 70 a selling level.
The stochastic Oscillator is now at 90.25 where 80 is considered overbought and 20 oversold.
The MACD has NOT yet triggered the sell signal but is close and we do expect that to happen within the next 2 trading days.
The Bollinger bands as we can see are not giving a very clear picture of what we could expect but definitely seem to be closing in pretty fast.

We also drew up a chart combining the 20-10-5 DMA. The chart has very simple rules

1. When the 20 DMA crosses over the 10DMA & 5 DMA it means the market is losing momentum and losing steam. (look at circle 2 above May)
2. When the 20 DMA goes under the 10 & 5 DMA it means the heat is building up and the bulls are taking charge. The market is rather gaining momentum quickly and its time to buy.

Combining these indicators for a previous period end april/ may start we see that

• the Stochastics in April end / May peak was at 72, 
• the 20 DMA crosses over the 10&5 DMA, 
• the MACD  generated a sell signal 4 days before the trend changed and 
• the RSI was at 65.

We had way too many signs of CAUTION and yet here we have it again. 

TimesNifty - July 5th 2011

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES TARGET MET

On the 20th of June we had posted an article on  RELIANCE INDUSTRIES "Make it OR Break it" (link)

Our first Target of 904 was met today - we had recommended the stock for the last run at 840-50 levels ! The stock hasn't moved quite at the pace as we had expected and with nifty touching our target of 5700 we have now  recommended our clients to sell for a lesser marginal profit.

HDFCBank Target Met !

On the 31st of May we had given our view on HDFCBank when it was @2275 - and the next day it shot up by 100 Rs. Yesterday HDFCBank shot right through touching a high of 2499 and closing @ 2489
The stock may face strong resistance 2539 and one could short at these levels keeping a stoploss of 2444

Thank You So Much

Some people were wondering how to contact us - our email id is timesnifty@gmail.com.
Anyone can email us at anytime and get in touch with us in regard to queries.

TIMESNIFTY  is a free service with no charge. Please feel free to email us and we shall reply within a few hours offering you our opinions and views.

Its just been a month and we have received some very good traffic. We believe with 3814 pageviews in a month and traffic from India, United States, UK, Germany, Malaysa, France, Kuwait, Saudi Aabia, we think we have been able to offer resourceful views that hopefully have profited investors in this short span.
 Thank You everyone for your emails your queries. We out here are much proud that we could help you. 

Nifty Strategy June 27- July 1st

We had predicted a trend change on the 24th of June 2 days before it actually happened. The market had closed with a bullish engulfing pattern on thursday followed by a 150 points shootup in Nifty.

This week the markets should react to a hike in diesel and LPG prices, the Greek debt concerns and US economic data. Taking the high of 5605 and low of 5195 the markets retraced back 23.6% and within another 3 trading sessions the market has covered and moved up to the 61.8% mark.

Option traders may assume short positions at 5520 levels for targets of 5430 -5350 and 5280.
Overall we are ot recommending any buying in this market. One should wait for the markets to come down to decent levels before initiating any fresh  position.

Intraday call for monday markets may rally to higher levels - buy @ 5440 for targets for 5510-20
buy put options in case markets reach or touch higher levels of 5520-40 

Thursday Nifty Trading Call 23/6/2011

TODAY NIFTY SHALL OPERATE IN THE RANGE OF 5300 AND 5240 IN A DOWNTREND   

SELL NIFTY @ 5290-5300 LEVEL TARGET IS 5240-5220.

                  

Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3	Resistance 4	Resistance 5
5310.76	5329	5347.26	5365.56	5383.89
Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Support 4	Support 5
5256.25	5238.14	5220.06	5202.01	5184

Intraday Strategy for June 22nd

Nifty shall operate in the range of 5180-5310 level in a downtrend.

Sell NIFTY at 5300-20 levels keeping stoploss at 5335 target is 5200 -5180

June 24th could be the date where the trend changes.

Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3	Resistance 4	Resistance 5
5310.76	5329	5347.26	5365.56	5383.89
Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Support 4	Support 5
5256.25	5238.14	5220.06	5202.01	5184

Intraday Strategy for June 21st

Nifty today should trade in the range of 5180 - 5300
Traders could select positions accordingly.
1. If Nifty opens near 5200 buy near 5190-5210 levels Target 5280-5300
2. If Nifty opens near 5300-10 levels sell for a target of 5230-40

Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3	Resistance 4	Resistance 5
5292.56	5310.76	5329	5347.26	5365.56
Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Support 4	Support 5
5238.14	5220.06	5202.01	5184	5166.01

NIFTY's Broken Shoulder :(

The closing today formed a complete head and shoulder pattern for Nifty. The Neckline (5350) was broken rather pretty quick. We see the next level of support at 5177 levels and after that nifty has support at 4800 levels.
The Neckline which was a Support shall  now play the role of Resistance.
The head and shoulder pattern does give an initial bounce back towards its neckline, so a short term target of 5340-60 can be expected from lower levels.

Nifty Strategy June 20th - June 24th

Nifty this week may hang around to consolidate between 5330 -5440/50

Calls may be bought at the 5330 levels. keep SL @ 5290

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES - " Make it OR Break it "

Everybody likes cheap stocks which promise to deliver in a short time span. Right now we dont need to look far to find one as one of the biggest companies is available at a 52 WEEK LOW. Reliance Industries has taken a constant beating by the investors and bears on speculations of companies strength to perform and deliver to its investors as one of the largest companies in the world.

The purpose of the chart is to give a brief and real picture about what a company has been doing overtime. The chart in this case gives us the magnitude of how bearish institutions and retailers have been on this security. As seen on the daily price chart - The stock has already broken its previous support of 880, we see that the last level of trend line support can be found in the range of 855-860. If broken, we could see the heavyweight take down the entire index along with itself.
The stock has been in a consolidation phase for the last 2 years moving sideways but losing its grip and value over time. RIL has especially been a target for short term investors who have continuously bought and sold the security keeping 10-15% margin as profits.

Keeping in mind our previous post about the NIFTY LEVELS we do expect the markets to go upto 5700 levels. If what we think and if our theory is right we do expect RELIANCE INDUSTRIES to start moving up from this level along with the index.

     
We have recommended a BUY to our clients @ the 850 levels and in our view the stock should again give its investors a 10-15% margin. We however do recommend that after gaining certain profits investors should watch how the markets react at the 5700 levels and sell stocks just to be on the safe side.

SHORT TERM TARGETS 904 , 929, 970 (5700 LEVELS)

Strategies for 17th June

Nifty shall on friday operate in a downward trend.

Sell at 5420 levels SL at 5440 Target 5380-60

Once it hits 5360 levels long positions can be taken for 5440-5460 levels 

HDFCBank & NIFTY UPDATE

HDFC BANK blasted today closing at 2399.55 and touched a high of 2408. Although 2 of our targets of 2350 and 2400 have so far been achieved the target of 2475 still remains which we hope to achieve later during the week.

For tomorrows (June 1st) trading session - 

Based on todays close HDFCBank looks good above 2374. If traded above this level for sometime we could see 2433 and above that 2460-65. However maximum profit should be booked at the first level. A strong support stands at 2340.

As per our projections todays High could be 2455 and Low 2357

Regarding our previous post of Nifty triangulating to 4800 on the 26th of May, we had hit a low of 5328 and closed at 5348. Since then Nifty has gained  212 points in 4 trading sessions and closed at 5560 on the 31st of May. 

However we would like to point out that the corrective B wave consists of 3 sub-waves. We may experience some sort of a correction in the coming trading sessions before hitting 5650-5690 levels. A very strong resistance is seen at 5700 levels where we think the Nifty shall eventually give traders the final exit chance. 5700 is also the 6th point which concurs the symmetrical triangular pattern.

Please be advised if any kind of actions or short positions are assumed work with a strict STOP LOSS. 

Technical Call on HDFC BANK

Using a very simple and conventional technical technique - we now see that the 5 DMA and 10DMA  have started to rise over the 20 DMA - the simple rule generates a buy signal when the smaller moving averages are above the larger moving average and triggers a sell/short signal when the smaller moving average goes below the larger or 20 DMA. The application uses a variation of 5,10 and 20 DMA.

As we can see MACD has also generated a buy signal for HDFC BANK.

The equity has been finding and using 2275 as a support line. Short term call or target for HDFC BANK stands at  2350, 2400 and 2475

Are we Triangulating to 4800 ??

  

On the 25th of May, we discussed the possiblillity of the Nifty coming within a symmetrical triangular pattern. As assumed the Nifty did touch a low of 5328.7 yesterday and rebounded back to close on at 5348.95 

As I write Nifty today has rebounded and has been trading @5398 at 1137 AM. 

The common rule requires 2 major confirmations before the assumption of a symmetrical triangle.

1. The second high should be  lower than the first high with the upper line sloping down.

2. The second low should be higher than the first low and the lower line should slope up.

The pattern generally forms with 6 points before a break out occurs.  

Drawing major trendlines our upper limit before a down trend begins would be 5660-5690 . A short position could be assumed with a stop loss of 5750

With an Elliott Wave Outlook  the rally from 5177  (WAVE C) was described as an ‘X’ wave separating two sets of three-wave down moves. We should now definitely try to hold 5600-5650 as a safe haven and exit positions on every recovery to sell before a move down to 4800