NIFTY TECHNICALS WEEK 6

The markets gained another 2 odd % points last week and the bulls managed to close the index over the 200 DMA. A closing above the 200 DMA is not generally considered bullish, a rather bullish scenario for the medium- long term develops when the 50 DMA crosses over the 200 DMA

The ruppee showed some amazing strength falling from 54 to 48.9 in just about a month. So, the ruppee jumps to 54 , government approves 100% FDI independent investments and markets rise.
So you send $100 to India @ 54 = 5400 RS. Buy back @ 49 = $110.2  
Gain = 10%
Not bad for a months work.

Now who else could import dollars into during such times could be your own guess. But what I would worry about is what the politicians will now do to keep this money in the country before outflow starts.
How about USD/INR = 56 or 58 ?  MONEY STAYS !!

I would  like to emphasize on the 50 % Gann retracement levels assuming the high of 6338 and a bottom of 4531 . 50% retracement level comes in at 5434

If we analyse the wave theory assuming that we are already in wave 5 a possible termination for  wave 5 at the 50 % level comes at 5422. The 3rd wave is now considered as extended and hence we should look for a normal impulse wave.

I am personally very bearish this week. Even though the US jobs and unemployment data has improved investor sentiment lets not forget that the EU bailout deal may steal the limelight and Greece as of now is not succumbing to the restrictions being imposed by the higher councils.

5420 - 50 now should be watched very carefully and no trades should be executed at these levels.

NIFTY WEEKLY