Nifty Technicals Nov 28th - Dec 2nd

This previous week we saw some rather rapid downfall and the rate at which it descended was quite phenomenal. For the coming week we want you all to remember that we are amidst the corrective wave, so we do have another wave or down leg pending. Our target of 4500 has not yet attained its goal and this is one of the  better opportunities for investors to take short positions at higher levels. We could see some bullnishness during the first half of the week - my guess would be till wednesday - we could see nifty hitting the 38.2% retracement levels @ 4898 and if it manages to cross that maximum we could see is 4976. Athough I have my own reasons to remain fairly skeptical about a move uptill 4976 but technically the markets are oversold and MACD shall soon be generating a buy signal.
The move up shall happen in 3 waves. (2 up 1 down). Now that we have already crossed monday and we jumped 141 points. This makes me fairly bearish for tomorrow as we may see our second wave down and a third wave up to 4898.

                 

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 28-Nov-2011
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	91834	2184.22	68951	1653.14	510775	12269.70
INDEX OPTIONS	417437	9920.04	382338	9009.38	1725527	41858.30	35099	910.67
STOCK FUTURES	74416	1670.60	50038	1140.99	1132425	25436.79	24378	529.60
STOCK OPTIONS	10882	241.60	10064	230.17	19059	448.66

      
The FII have bought 910 cr worth of index options and 529 cr worth of stock futures in OI. These numbers actually make me lean towards a target of 4900 more than 5000. The Net FII position is -302. 59. This also tends to ascertain the fact that we could rather open gap up , go down, recover and consolidate for the rest of the day.

The latter half of the week seems to look rather bearish as we again start our down move to complete this wave structure. This move down would make a lower low.

Perhaps 4500 should be hit sooner or later, but I would still not rule out the possibility of 4000 as of yet.  

Remembering Our Heroes !

A tribute to our heroes !

The 2008 Mumbai attacks (sometimes referred to as 26/11) were more than 10 coordinated shooting and bombing attacks across Mumbai, India's largest city, by Islamist attackers^[5][6]who came from Pakistan.^[7] The attackers received reconnaissance assistance before the attacks, Ajmal Kasab later claimed upon interrogation that the attacks were conducted with the support of Pakistan's ISI.^[8][9] The attacks, which drew widespread global condemnation, began on Wednesday, 26 November and lasted until Saturday, 29 November 2008, killing 164 people and wounding at least 308.^[2][10]

Eight of the attacks occurred in South Mumbai: at Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus, the Oberoi Trident,^[11] the Taj Mahal Palace & Tower,^[11] Leopold Cafe, Cama Hospital (a women and children's hospital),^[11] the Nariman House Jewish community centre,^[12] the Metro Cinema,^[13] and a lane behind the Times of India building and St. Xavier's College.^[11] There was also an explosion at Mazagaon, in Mumbai's port area, and in a taxi at Vile Parle.^[14] By the early morning of 28 November, all sites except for the Taj hotel had been secured byMumbai Police and security forces. On 29 November, India's National Security Guards (NSG) conducted Operation Black Tornado to flush out the remaining attackers; it resulted in the death of the last remaining attackers at the Taj hotel and ending all fighting in the attacks.^[15]

Ajmal Kasab,^[16] the only attacker who was captured alive, disclosed that the attackers were members of Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Pakistan-based militant organisation, considered a terrorist organisation by India, Pakistan, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the United Nations,^[17] among others.^[18] The Indian government said that the attackers came from Pakistan, and their controllers were in Pakistan.^[19] On 7 January 2009,^[20] Pakistan's Information Minister Sherry Rehman officially accepted Ajmal Kasab's nationality as Pakistani.^[21] On 12 February 2009, Pakistan's Interior Minister Rehman Malik asserted that parts of the attack had been planned in Pakistan.^[22] A trial court on 6 May 2010 sentenced Ajmal Kasab to death on five counts.

Nifty Technicals November 21st

BANK NIFTY

We had posted on Friday about the strong movements that could come in to lift the mood and sentiment. LT and  SBIN both lifted the spirits with a huge rally. Technically the markets are oversold but we could see 4850 retested or consolidation or sideways movements for the next day or 2. We do turn fairly bullish for Wednesday and Thursday. We could see as much as 5066 tested as that is now the 50DMA

Bank Nifty  has now formed a Dragonfly Candlestick and and we may see some momentum starting now.

Buy at / above: 8859.51   Targets: 8878.62 - 8902.18 - 8925.78 - 8949.41 Stoploss : 8836
Sell at / below: 8836   Targets: 8816.92 - 8793.45 - 8770.02 - 8746.62 Stoploss : 8859.51

Nifty Futures
Buy at / above: 4917.51   Targets: 4932.59 - 4950.16 - 4967.76 - 4985.39
Stoploss : 4900
Sell at / below: 4900   Targets: 4884.95 - 4867.49 - 4850.06 - 4832.66
Stoploss : 4917.51

Nifty Technicals SBIN, LT November17th

SBIN
Buy at / above: 1774.51   Targets: 1784.16 - 1794.74 - 1805.34 - 1815.98  Stoploss : 1764

Sell at / below: 1764   Targets: 1754.39 - 1743.93 - 1733.5 - 1723.11 Stoploss : 1774.51

LARSEN TOUBRO

Buy at / above: 1242.56   Targets: 1250.76 - 1259.61 - 1268.5 - 1277.42 Stoploss : 1233.76
Sell at / below: 1233.76   Targets: 1225.61 - 1216.87 - 1208.16 - 1199.49 Stoploss : 1242.56

Technically both the stocks have now reached an oversold position and will take support at the trendline. 

NIFTY FUTURE TRADING LEVELS

Buy at / above: 5058.76   Targets: 5074.02 - 5091.84 - 5109.69 - 5127.57 Stoploss : 5041
Sell at / below: 5041   Targets: 5025.77 - 5008.06 - 4990.38 - 4972.73 Stoploss : 5058.76

You may see a gap down opening but the markets may recover eventually . We hit a low @4989 which was 50% retracement from the previous high. Trade with strict stoploss and book profits on way. 

Nifty Technicals November 15th

Nifty Spot 

Buy  above: 5148.06   Targets: 5163.43 - 5181.4 - 5199.41 - 5217.45 Stoploss : 5130.14

Sell  below: 5130.14   Targets: 5114.8 - 5096.93 - 5079.1 - 5061.29 Stoploss : 5148.06

The market may open gap down - A strong support stands @ 5050 - Buy at this level for a target of 5300-50. A strict stop loss should be maintained @ 5020 . The bears did manage to close Nifty below 5150 yesterday and that should be kept in mind while trading today.