Nifty Update December 2011

As we achieved our target of 4530 as we had posted in October'10 this is the new scenario that seems to be building up.

Nifty Technicals Nov 28th - Dec 2nd

This previous week we saw some rather rapid downfall and the rate at which it descended was quite phenomenal. For the coming week we want you all to remember that we are amidst the corrective wave, so we do have another wave or down leg pending. Our target of 4500 has not yet attained its goal and this is one of the  better opportunities for investors to take short positions at higher levels. We could see some bullnishness during the first half of the week - my guess would be till wednesday - we could see nifty hitting the 38.2% retracement levels @ 4898 and if it manages to cross that maximum we could see is 4976. Athough I have my own reasons to remain fairly skeptical about a move uptill 4976 but technically the markets are oversold and MACD shall soon be generating a buy signal.
The move up shall happen in 3 waves. (2 up 1 down). Now that we have already crossed monday and we jumped 141 points. This makes me fairly bearish for tomorrow as we may see our second wave down and a third wave up to 4898.

                 

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 28-Nov-2011
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	91834	2184.22	68951	1653.14	510775	12269.70
INDEX OPTIONS	417437	9920.04	382338	9009.38	1725527	41858.30	35099	910.67
STOCK FUTURES	74416	1670.60	50038	1140.99	1132425	25436.79	24378	529.60
STOCK OPTIONS	10882	241.60	10064	230.17	19059	448.66

      
The FII have bought 910 cr worth of index options and 529 cr worth of stock futures in OI. These numbers actually make me lean towards a target of 4900 more than 5000. The Net FII position is -302. 59. This also tends to ascertain the fact that we could rather open gap up , go down, recover and consolidate for the rest of the day.

The latter half of the week seems to look rather bearish as we again start our down move to complete this wave structure. This move down would make a lower low.

Perhaps 4500 should be hit sooner or later, but I would still not rule out the possibility of 4000 as of yet.  

Remembering Our Heroes !

A tribute to our heroes !

The 2008 Mumbai attacks (sometimes referred to as 26/11) were more than 10 coordinated shooting and bombing attacks across Mumbai, India's largest city, by Islamist attackers^[5][6]who came from Pakistan.^[7] The attackers received reconnaissance assistance before the attacks, Ajmal Kasab later claimed upon interrogation that the attacks were conducted with the support of Pakistan's ISI.^[8][9] The attacks, which drew widespread global condemnation, began on Wednesday, 26 November and lasted until Saturday, 29 November 2008, killing 164 people and wounding at least 308.^[2][10]

Eight of the attacks occurred in South Mumbai: at Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus, the Oberoi Trident,^[11] the Taj Mahal Palace & Tower,^[11] Leopold Cafe, Cama Hospital (a women and children's hospital),^[11] the Nariman House Jewish community centre,^[12] the Metro Cinema,^[13] and a lane behind the Times of India building and St. Xavier's College.^[11] There was also an explosion at Mazagaon, in Mumbai's port area, and in a taxi at Vile Parle.^[14] By the early morning of 28 November, all sites except for the Taj hotel had been secured byMumbai Police and security forces. On 29 November, India's National Security Guards (NSG) conducted Operation Black Tornado to flush out the remaining attackers; it resulted in the death of the last remaining attackers at the Taj hotel and ending all fighting in the attacks.^[15]

Ajmal Kasab,^[16] the only attacker who was captured alive, disclosed that the attackers were members of Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Pakistan-based militant organisation, considered a terrorist organisation by India, Pakistan, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the United Nations,^[17] among others.^[18] The Indian government said that the attackers came from Pakistan, and their controllers were in Pakistan.^[19] On 7 January 2009,^[20] Pakistan's Information Minister Sherry Rehman officially accepted Ajmal Kasab's nationality as Pakistani.^[21] On 12 February 2009, Pakistan's Interior Minister Rehman Malik asserted that parts of the attack had been planned in Pakistan.^[22] A trial court on 6 May 2010 sentenced Ajmal Kasab to death on five counts.

Nifty Technicals November 21st

BANK NIFTY

We had posted on Friday about the strong movements that could come in to lift the mood and sentiment. LT and  SBIN both lifted the spirits with a huge rally. Technically the markets are oversold but we could see 4850 retested or consolidation or sideways movements for the next day or 2. We do turn fairly bullish for Wednesday and Thursday. We could see as much as 5066 tested as that is now the 50DMA

Bank Nifty  has now formed a Dragonfly Candlestick and and we may see some momentum starting now.

Buy at / above: 8859.51   Targets: 8878.62 - 8902.18 - 8925.78 - 8949.41 Stoploss : 8836
Sell at / below: 8836   Targets: 8816.92 - 8793.45 - 8770.02 - 8746.62 Stoploss : 8859.51

Nifty Futures
Buy at / above: 4917.51   Targets: 4932.59 - 4950.16 - 4967.76 - 4985.39
Stoploss : 4900
Sell at / below: 4900   Targets: 4884.95 - 4867.49 - 4850.06 - 4832.66
Stoploss : 4917.51

Nifty Technicals SBIN, LT November17th

SBIN
Buy at / above: 1774.51   Targets: 1784.16 - 1794.74 - 1805.34 - 1815.98  Stoploss : 1764

Sell at / below: 1764   Targets: 1754.39 - 1743.93 - 1733.5 - 1723.11 Stoploss : 1774.51

LARSEN TOUBRO

Buy at / above: 1242.56   Targets: 1250.76 - 1259.61 - 1268.5 - 1277.42 Stoploss : 1233.76
Sell at / below: 1233.76   Targets: 1225.61 - 1216.87 - 1208.16 - 1199.49 Stoploss : 1242.56

Technically both the stocks have now reached an oversold position and will take support at the trendline. 

NIFTY FUTURE TRADING LEVELS

Buy at / above: 5058.76   Targets: 5074.02 - 5091.84 - 5109.69 - 5127.57 Stoploss : 5041
Sell at / below: 5041   Targets: 5025.77 - 5008.06 - 4990.38 - 4972.73 Stoploss : 5058.76

You may see a gap down opening but the markets may recover eventually . We hit a low @4989 which was 50% retracement from the previous high. Trade with strict stoploss and book profits on way. 

Nifty Technicals November 15th

Nifty Spot 

Buy  above: 5148.06   Targets: 5163.43 - 5181.4 - 5199.41 - 5217.45 Stoploss : 5130.14

Sell  below: 5130.14   Targets: 5114.8 - 5096.93 - 5079.1 - 5061.29 Stoploss : 5148.06

The market may open gap down - A strong support stands @ 5050 - Buy at this level for a target of 5300-50. A strict stop loss should be maintained @ 5020 . The bears did manage to close Nifty below 5150 yesterday and that should be kept in mind while trading today.  

NIFTY Intraday October 24th

Buy at / above: 5058.76   Targets: 5074.02 - 5091.84 - 5109.69 - 5127.57 Stoploss : 5041
Sell at / below: 5041   Targets: 5025.77 - 5008.06 - 4990.38 - 4972.73 Stoploss : 5058.76


The market has opened 64 points up @ 5114 - we shall face some stiff resistance @ 5125 and 5150 levels -
The EU Summit shall have to come to a conclusion on its debt issues by Wednesday which according to us should be resolved and the results  should be positive. The RBI also has decided to meet on the 25th to discuss its issues with rate hikes and inflation. Would the 13th rate hike be lucky for the Indian investors ?

Buy at / above: 5058.76   Targets: 5074.02 - 5091.84 - 5109.69 - 5127.57 Stoploss : 5041
Sell at / below: 5041   Targets: 5025.77 - 5008.06 - 4990.38 - 4972.73 Stoploss : 5058.76


The market has opened 64 points up @ 5114 - we shall face some stiff resistance @ 5125 and 5150 levels -
The EU Summit shall have to come to a conclusion on its debt issues by Wednesday which according to us should be resolved and the results  should be positive. The RBI also has decided to meet on the 25th to discuss its issues with rate hikes and inflation. Would the 13th rate hike be lucky for the Indian investors ?

TRADER ALERT !! WARM UP FOR 4500 !

A single zigzag in a bull market is a simple three-wave declining pattern labeled A-B-C and subdividing 5-3-5. The top of wave B is noticeably lower than the start of wave A, as illustrated in Figures 11 and 12.

Occasionally zigzags will occur twice, or at most, three times in succession, particularly when the first zigzag falls short of a normal target. In these cases, each zigzag is separated by an intervening "three" (labeled X), producing what is called a double zigzag (see Figure 13) or triple zigzag. The zigzags are labeled W and Y (and Z, if a triple).
Source http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics3.htm

Now compare the image above to these - we see that the wave patterns are now in the same formation - we had mentioned before that nifty was likely to get into trouble once it got close to 5200 levels. The 161.8% retracement level falls close to 4520 and after this we would start a whole new wave cycle. Seeing the global scenario we also feel that the next cycle may complete rather quickly or faster than the other cycles. 
We are currently trading at 5140 levels and wave 4 was formed @ 5160 on the 14th of october, the chances of this surpassing 5160 now seems very bleak.

Nifty Intraday & Technicals October 18th

Nifty spot - The market may open gap down as majority of the indexes closed n red and Asia itself is trading lower. But during the day the market shall recover majority of its losses or may even turn green. 


Buy at / above: 5130.14   Targets: 5145.48 - 5163.43 - 5181.4 - 5199.41
Stoploss : 5112.25
Sell at / below: 5112.25   Targets: 5096.93 - 5079.1 - 5061.29 - 5043.52
Stoploss : 5130.14

Nifty Intraday and technicals Oct 17th

Nifty spot - resistance today comes in @ 5165 and 5190 levels , so take profits on long quickly 
Buy above: 5148.06   Targets: 5163.43 - 5181.4 - 5199.41 - 5217.45 Stoploss : 5130.14
Sell below: 5130.14   Targets: 5114.8 - 5096.93 - 5079.1 - 5061.29 Stoploss : 5148.06


LT - confirmed the engulfing bear pattern on Friday  short positions can be taken near 1424 on upper side.
Intraday support and resistance  
RESISTANCE 2 1441.7 
RESISTANCE 1 1424.6 
SUPPORT 1  1394.8 
SUPPORT 2  1382.0  
Buy  above: 1415.64   Targets: 1424.34 - 1433.79 - 1443.27 - 1452.78 Stoploss : 1406.25
Sell  below: 1406.25   Targets: 1397.58 - 1388.25 - 1378.95 - 1369.68 Stoploss : 1415.64

Nifty Intraday Technicals Oct `14

The strong trendline made Nifty retreat after it hit a high of 5136 - I had mentioned 2 days back because of the building up steam there was an upside potential of 5130 - As for today the market may start by going up but towards the end of the day we could see some sort of a sell off. - Sell 5000 CE at higher levels -
Reliance Industries declares its results tomorrow and this could be a trend changer if it fails to keep its promises.
Support for Bank Nifty comes in @ 9480 - if it fails to hold this line we could see nifty head towards 5040 and 5000 levels .
Infy could also be losing some steam now so if during the day you feel Nifty may crack this heavy weight could lead the way - so make sure u short this at decent levels or pick up some put options for intra-day profit.


Buy above: 2704   Targets: 2715.65 - 2728.69 - 2741.76 - 2754.87  Stoploss : 2691.01
Sell below: 2691.01   Targets: 2679.4 - 2666.47 - 2653.57 - 2640.71 Stoploss : 2704


Nifty Spot 
Buy  above: 5094.39   Targets: 5109.69 - 5127.57 - 5145.48 - 5163.43 Stoploss : 5076.56
Sell  below: 5076.56   Targets: 5061.29 - 5043.52 - 5025.77 - 5008.06 Stoploss : 5094.39


Intra-day support and resistance 
 RESISTANCE 2 5163.5 
 RESISTANCE 1 5120.7 
 SUPPORT 1  5051.4 
 SUPPORT 2  5024.9  

Nifty Intraday & Technicals Oct 13th

Buy above: 5112.25   Targets: 5127.57 - 5145.48 - 5163.43 - 5181.4 Stoploss : 5094.39

Sell below: 5094.39   Targets: 5079.1 - 5061.29 - 5043.52 - 5025.77 Stoploss : 5112.25

The markets shall remain fairly positive overall during the day. 

INFY faces resistance @ 2707 - stochastics are in an over-bought zone. The markets look negative tomorrow. positioning yourself that way today could help you make some free bucks. 

buy put options for 2500 or 2600 

Like we had expected SBIN and LT did show some violent swings yesterday and that may continue today. 

Trade smart and keep booking profits on way. 

Nifty Intraday Oct' 12th

Nifty Spot 
Buy at / above: 4987.89   Targets: 5003.05 - 5020.75 - 5038.47 - 5056.23 Stoploss : 4970.25
Sell at / below: 4970.25   Targets: 4955.11 - 4937.53 - 4919.97 - 4902.45 Stoploss : 4987.89


INFY was a great call for yesterday. We sincerely appreciate all your emails and notes.

Nifty has now become bullish and we expect it to touch 5130 within the next 2 days. Infosys results still worry us to a certain degree however Bank Nifty (9178) has now turned bullish and the next resistance comes in @ 9500 which could compensate for the heavy weights losses. LT and SBIN could show some promising and violent upmoves.
SBIN
Buy at / above: 1774.51   Targets: 1784.16 - 1794.74 - 1805.34 - 1815.98 Stoploss : 1764
Sell at / below: 1764   Targets: 1754.39 - 1743.93 - 1733.5 - 1723.11 Stoploss : 1774.51

CLOSE YOUR SHORT POSITIONS FOR THE TIME BEING. 

Nifty Intraday & Technicals Oct 11th

Nifty Spot 
Buy above: 4987.89   Targets: 5003.05 - 5020.75 - 5038.47 - 5056.23 Stoploss : 4970.25
Sell below: 4970.25   Targets: 4955.11 - 4937.53 - 4919.97 - 4902.45 Stoploss : 4987.89


BANK NIFTY 
Because of the gap up opening 9190 now becomes a support line - above 9332 gap filling up till 9420 shall take place and you can expect some violent up moves.
BUY BN above 9240 - trgts - 9284-9332- 9420


The market may open gap up but has strong resistance @ 5035 and 5060. The gains maybe short lived and maybe erased during the second half - Book profits on the go. If you feel trapped in a stock book losses and get out but do not hang in there waiting for your price to come back. 


Infy posts its results soon - and we highly doubt the results would be anything extra ordinary - the way Infosys has been behaving we could see some major drops pretty soon. 
BUY 2450 PE @ 51 keep stoploss @ 40 target 75-80 

Nifty Intraday & Technicals Oct'10th

Nifty Spot 


Buy above: 4900   Targets: 4915.05 - 4932.59 - 4950.16 - 4967.76 Stoploss : 4882.51

Sell below: 4882.51   Targets: 4867.49 - 4850.06 - 4832.66 - 4815.29 Stoploss : 4900   


BANK NIFTY 


Bank Nifty has broken its August low of 8917. The Index came under serious pressure after Moody's downgraded SBIN. We may see some resistance @ 9200 levels. 
Buy above 9042 trgt - 9120 , 9192 , 9267
Sell below 8970 trgts - 8893, 8818 , 8770